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PROBABILISTIC APPROACH TO PROJECT-SPECIFIC POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS FOR MINERAL PROJECTS

机译:矿山项目特定政治风险分析的概率方法

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摘要

As globalization continues, sustainability and social responsibilityhas become essential in foreign mining investment. However thisglobal trend and the increasing acceptability toward the globalizationprocess, viability and sustainability are not always achieved.Viability and sustainability of mineral projects is dependant onthe social and political environment of the region where the miningventure is located and is based on the interaction between the miningentrepreneurs, national-local government representatives, communities,grass-roots groups and independent civil organizations.These are the organizations, which play the acting roles on the viabilityof mining projects and are the main source of socio-politicalrisks for the project.Throughout the decision-making process to invest in a mineralproject, socio-political risks are quantified using a set of measurablevariables. Nevertheless, these risk measures should be dependenton specific industries. Two mineral projects, even in the same miningdistrict, may have significantly different political risk profiles based ontheir own socio-political variables. This paper describes a methodologythat takes into account local social and political variables in defininga project-specific's political risk profile. This contrasts with moretypical political risk measures that focus on the country's overall riskprofile. Mining operations must operate on a local scale necessitatingthe development measure that considers more local variables.
机译:随着全球化的继续,可持续发展和社会责任 在外国矿业投资中已变得至关重要。但是这个 全球趋势和对全球化的日益接受 流程,可行性和可持续性并非总能实现。 矿产项目的可行性和可持续性取决于 采矿所在地区的社会和政治环境 合资企业位于并基于采矿业之间的相互作用 企业家,国家地方政府代表,社区, 基层团体和独立的民间组织。 这些是在生存能力方面发挥作用的组织 采矿项目,是社会政治的主要来源 项目风险。 在整个决策过程中投资矿物 项目,使用一组可衡量的方法对社会政治风险进行量化 变量。然而,这些风险措施应取决于 在特定行业。两个矿产项目,即使在同一采矿中 地区,基于以下因素可能具有明显不同的政治风险状况 他们自己的社会政治变量。本文介绍了一种方法 在定义时要考虑当地的社会和政治变量 项目特定的政治风险状况。这与更多形成对比 侧重于国家总体风险的典型政治风险衡量 轮廓。采矿作业必须在当地规模上进行, 考虑更多局部变量的发展测度。

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