Might Twenty Models Cover Ninety Percent of AllSituations Managers Encounter?

摘要

Jay Forrester’s call for a set of ‘general, transferable computerized cases’ to cover mostmanagerial situations is one of the great tasks standing before the field of systemdynamics. A library of widely applicable cases, if accompanied by reliable guidelines forwhen to apply them, would be a boon to research, teaching, and management.Researchers could use these cases as strong null models when evaluating new situationsand new theories (Bell 2001). Teachers could use the most widely applicable cases for ageneral management course or could use a thematic subset of the cases for specializedcourses. Managers could approach a new situation by selecting then tailoring the modelor models most likely to shed light on that situation. This paper discusses progress thathas been made toward this library of general and transferable models, and describes aresearch project under way to both evaluate models for the library and produce theapplication guidelines needed for the library to fulfill its promise.