Probability Estimates and Prior Outcome Feedback Influences upon Risk Taking in a Dynamic Uncertain Context

摘要

In addition to testing competing hypotheses derived from Prospect Theory and Quasi-Hedonic Editing Theory about the effects of performance outcome feedback on subsequent decisions, we also investigated how one's perceptions of probability would influence one's decisions made in a dynamic uncertain environment. Consistent with Quasi-Hedonic Editing Theory, decision makers who had failed to reach their goals set lower, less risky goals in subsequent decisions. In addition, we found some evidence that probability estimates initially have some influence but, as more decisions are made, the influence becomes nonexistent. Our findings illustrate the need for further risk taking research in environments that more closely resemble managerial decision making.