Probabilistic Factors in Causal Reasoning

摘要

This study was designed to examine how probability of antecedent and types of arguments affect causal reasoning. Twenty-two subjects conducted eight conditions of causal reasoning tasks combining two levels of probability and four types of arguments. The subjects were required to estimate the validity of the conclusion of conditional reasoning sentences. In the results, probability affected the subjects' estimation of validity of the conclusion in two types of arguments. This result suggested that the effects of condition and alternative cause on causal reasoning, which was indicated by Cummins (1995) could be interpreted in terms of probability of antecedent.