We address the problem of the stochastic nature of ground pressure manifestation. Stress distribution in a rock mass and ground irreversible movement are governed with a set of random factors that affect the over-peak strength of the rocks, making them extremely sensitive to any perturbation of the external environment and to internal fluctuations of the thermodynamic state of the rock. We investigate the fluctuation evolution during a longwall face movement to find out whether the fluctuation dissipates or builds up. Five adjacent powered support failures simulate the ground pressure fluctuation. The main roof has been presented as a plate that reposed on the rigid base. The stiffness of the base depends on the thickness of the extracted coal seam and on the dilation of the caving roof. Maximum stiffness occurs in situ, and minimum stiffness is in the gob when the roof is highly flexible and subsides elastically, without caving. The more stress acts in the roof, the higher the cavity that occurs and the larger increment of the base stiffness. The wave of the fluctuation has extended both to the direction of the longwall advance and along the face from the point of the fluctuation agitation. There was an incubation period when the fluctuation was negligible, and the process of the main roof caving remained unaffected. The distance of the longwall advance during the incubation period was twice the longwall length when the fluctuation magnitude was 1% relative to the maximum possible disturbance and 0.76 of the longwall length for the magnitude of 24%. However, the pattern of the roof caving has dramatically changed during further movement of the longwall. All caving parameters have changed: step of the caving, ground pressure distribution, and the manifestation in the longwall and entries. A histogram of the fluctuation magnitude is symmetric in accordance with normal distribution. However, the distribution has abnormal excess. These findings are the first step toward answering the question whether it is possible to forecast the process of main roof caving and weighting consistently. Our preliminary conclusion is that the space and time intervals where this prediction can be made with certain reliability are limited, so further investigation is needed.
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