DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION OF INVESTMENTDECISIONS TARGETED AT EXPANSION OF OIL EXPORTROUTES FROM RUSSIA

摘要

The entity most fit to pursue export expansion projects of Russia is theRussian oil pipeline monopoly - JSC Transneft. Throughout all of these eight years theCompany has been actively soliciting its ability to perform this coordinating role andsucceeded in establishing itself as a key player in most of the proposed export expansionprojects.Evaluation of the risk level and other factors is always based upon the opinions ofexperts and decision-makers. Here we witness the same situation that arises during theselection of corporate strategies or various business development ideas. For the last threeyears JSC Transneft has been using a new information technology for the preparation andenactment of decisions, which makes it possible to accumulate and compare all availableinformation on competitive pipeline construction and expansion projects, rank them andcombine, where necessary, evolving solutions at every stage of decision-making.The basis of this technology are custom made logical expert analysis informationsystems. A unique logical sequence for the analysis of conflicting ideas of major actors,evaluation of the significance of the objectives, the level of influence of each factor, risk,restriction, etc., is developed for each specific problem. There is a special software(expert analysis system generator), which initiates an interactive interrogation of anexpert and processes the input data on the basis of the logical scheme, entered by the user.The template of the logical scheme looks like the so-called “dominancehierarchy”. This procedure can be applied to one of the long-term export expansionprojects - Phase 2 of the Baltic Pipeline System. This project targets increasing oilexport from the Timan-Pechora region, as well as partial re-orientation of existing oilflows from West Siberia and the Volga-Urals region (including export of a portion ofKazakhstan production).