Forecasting Outcomes Achieved in Cultural and Creative Projects: System Dynamics Approach

摘要

The article provides project managers with a new approach to project planning with regard to monitoring the actual progress of the project implementation. The method introduced in the article is based on system dynamics modelling and project management principles outlined in the internationally recognised PRINCE2 methodology. It also makes use of the principle set in the EVM method, which is a part of the standard of the PMI. The System dynamics model of a plan and of the real-life situation have the same structure but differ in the values of exogenous variables. The method enables better information for the project manager and their team on the expected project outcomes. The project model is divided into stages and the actual outcomes of the project are compared against the plan at the end of each stage, indicating the current trend for further development of the project. This approach provides the project manager with a strong argument for introducing timely managerial interventions in the project team. The method resembles checking the route by a traveller with the use of GPS navigation, which is why we named it GPS-PM. The method is used in real-life projects that are part of university courses in project management.