Absent or distant? On the use of indirect causal links and chains of causal links to compare mental models of dynamic systems

摘要

The topic of eliciting and comparing mental models of dynamic systems has been present in system dynamics since many years. Elicitation and comparison methods have been used from other social science disciplines and have been adapted to the specific needs of system dynamics. Most of them focus on variables and causal links; the most recent methods also account for feedback loops. However, this focus on variables and causal links has challenges in dealing with differences stemming from diverse degrees of aggregation. We propose to use the method chain of causal links to include the perspective of the level of analysis. A simple example is used to demonstrate the method chain of causal links. First, a reference model is defined with a standard length for each causal chain; then, a distance matrix representation of causal loop diagrams is used and two new indicators - relative length difference and relative content difference - are shown to provide useful information for interpreting different levels of aggregation in the causal connection between variables.