Legalization of Cannabis in the USA: A System Dynamics Approach to Drug Policy

摘要

Colorado and Washington State have made history by approving measures to make marijuana sale and use legal for people over the age of 21, in direct opposition to federal law. While there is a sizable discussion of the actual repercussions that legal marijuana would entail, no one knows what will happen. Politicians in both states (and the federal government) must now make decisions on how best to implement these policies in a highly uncertain setting. Furthermore, the lack of specific information of existing black market trade makes pure economically driven policies highly speculative. The purpose of this paper is to aid in making such decisions by analyzing the relationship between the legal production of marijuana and the black market trade as well as their effects on the general population using System Dynamics. As there is big uncertainty about the process of starting and dependent cannabis use and the effect of legalization on these processes this subject needs further research. Looking at the market side of legalization preliminary conclusions can be drawn. These conclusions imply that regulating the supply side through permits is effective at fighting possible oversupply and heavy taxes might leave room for the illegal market to stay operational.