Underground mining production system is a non-linear muddleheaded system. Then ming produce system (stopes or roadeays) may engender integral unstable during the course of gradually damnifying development. It is very important for us to accurately evalaute stability and forecast integral unstable of the fill body and surrounding rock for a large span stoep or a roadway. It is very difficult for us to forecast the break instability when using traditional mechanical analyses theories and computing mehtods. The catastrophe theory provides a mathematical tool to solve the non-linear break failure problem. This paepr first time proposes a forecasting theory and calculating mehtod of the break instability of rock based on a catastrophe theory.
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