Using the probabilistic risk assessment to support ship certification

摘要

The content of this work concerns the application and extension of Risk Analysis techniques to the Maritime field where they are referred to as "Formal Safety Assessment". Our work is aimed to perform a pilot application of the FSA methodology to a real system. This application wishes to demonstrate how the systematic investigation of the system and the probabilistic approach are able to suggest design improvements oriented to increase the ship availability and to reduce construction and management costs without affecting negatively the safety level of the transportation service. The paper will address in detail the system description, the results of the probabilistic analysis, the comparison between these results and the Certification Rules and finally discusses the possibility to approach FSA as a support to check and improve the marine regulations, consistently with the new course which is being followed by the International Maritime Organization (IMO).