Reliability-Based Calibration of Safety Factors for Tubular Joints Design

摘要

The objective of this paper is to illustrate the application of structural reliability methods for calibration of safety factors for tubular joint design. Reliability assessment models for Ultimate Limit State (ULS) are developed. Uncertainties involved in the assessment and calibration are assessed and measured. Comparisons between API prediction and tests are made to estimate the model uncertainty. The target reliability levels, which depend mainly on the consequences of failure and safety philosophy, are reviewed and discussed. Sensitivity studies are performed to identify critical factors affecting failure probability. A case study is given to demonstrate the procedure of calibrating safety factors by applying structural reliability. The proposed procedures may also be applied to the calibration of safety factors for design of marine pipelines, ships and other structures.