Concern regarding a potential increase in the threat of forest fires in Sweden due to climate change has driven research that enables long-term planning for national preparedness. This research consists of three converging approaches: investigation of forest ecology as it pertains to fire parameters; ignition testing of forest floor fuels native to Sweden; and modelling based both on historical fires and future meteorology. The results of ignition testing are reported here. Ignition tests were conducted as a function of moisture content of over-wintered roadside grass, maple and birch leaves, spruce and pine needles, moss, and humus. The ignition sources were a small open flame, a cigarette, or hot metal particles. Radiation tests were also conducted on a subset of specimens using a cone calorimeter. Pine needles and grass had very similar flame ignition results, with a 50 % probability of ignition (P50) of about 20 % moisture content (dry basis). Moss, humus, and maple leaves had a P50 of 10 – 12 % moisture content for flame ignition. The P50 for humus with cigarette ignition was about 27 % moisture content. Spruce needles would not burn under any of the test conditions. The effects of wind and grass density were also investigated. These test results, combined with modelling, will be used to create present and future forest fire scenarios. A workshop, in which emergency responders will participate in forest fire simulations, will provide the basis for recommendations to Sweden’s civil contingencies agency (MSB) for future resource allocation and logistics planning.
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