A stochastic typhoon model and its applciation to the estimation of extremes of storm surge and wave height

摘要

This paper presents a system for estimating extremes of storm surge height and wave height associated with typhoons,which consissts of a Monte-Carlo simulation model termed a stochastic typhoon model,a parametric typhoon model for wind estimation,numbericla models for the computation of storm surges or waves and an extreme analysis mdoel for estimation of their return alues.The system is applied to the estimation of 50 to 1000-year return values and their ocnfidence intervals based on the computations over a period of 1000 years for storm surge heights in Ise Bay connecting to the Pacific Ocean.and for wave heights at some representative locations around the Pacific coast of Japan.