FSCBG predictions of bioligcal dose response coupled to decision support

摘要

One of the natural extensions of the USDA Forest Service aerial application prediction model FSCBG (Forest Service Cramer-Barry-Grim) is in the prediction of dose response, combining the ability of the model to predict drift accurately, linking this output to biological effects models, and interpreting these results in light of application productivity and the consequences of deposit variation. A number of field trials, and several attempts at quantifying acceptable dose levels, have been undertaken by the USDA Forest Service over the last 20 years. From these results appropriate expousre relationships may be constructed that feed directly into model predictions of deposition, enabling FSCBG to: (1) predict protective buffer zones based on a defined spraying spraying scenario, non-target areas, and sensitive species; (2) predict productivity, biological effects, and operational cost of a spray project; (3) define application options to achieve a specified buffer zone; (4) predict the sensitivity on drift and productivity of changes in spraying scenario; and (5) integrate and correlate all of this information into conventent and understandable graphics. This paper reviews the extension of the FSCBG prediction model into dose response within a decision supprt system, how the tools and data available today enable the conection between model and herbicide/insecticide effectiveness, and ways in which the model may find significant usefulness in pesticide formulations and application systems.