Medium-term load forecasting and wholesale transaction profitability

摘要

The volume of wholesale transactions quoted at firm prices is increasing. The cost, and thus profitability, of serving these cotnracts strongly depends upon native load during the time of delivery. However, transactions extend beyond load forecasts based on weather information, and long-term resource planning forecasts of load peaks and energy provide inadequate detail. To address this need, Decision Focus Inc. (DFI) and Commonwealth Edison (ComEd) developed a probabilistic, medium-term load forecasting capability. In this paper we use a hypothetical utility to explore the impact of uncertain medium-term loads on transaction profitability.