ESTIMATING ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS OF ENERGY PROGRAMS

摘要

Three national reporting programs that either collect or report information on energy savings and the associated emissions reductions from DSM programs are the Conservation Verification Protocols (CVP), the Greenhouse Gas Voluntary Reporting Program (VRP), and the Green Lights Program. The CVP were enacted to report the atmospheric emissions reductions of SO_2 and NO_2. The VRP was mandated in the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct) Section 1605(b) to report CO_2 emissions reductions. Green Lights is a program designed to reduce emissions by encouraging energy-efficient lighting. In this paper we concentrate on how the verification methods, default emission factors and reporting mechanisms affect the accuracy of the reported energy and emissions savings. Additionally, we focus on the dynamic nature of predicted emissions reductions to gauge the accuracy of predictions over time.If conservation programs are designed to affect existing powerplants, if no load growth is anticipated, and if existing plants will not require replacement, a simple static analysis based on an existing resource mix may be acceptable. This approach is enhanced by defining base case, intermediate, and peak resources. However, if today's decisions will affect tomorrow's resource decisions, or if the estimates will be used to establish important milestones (such as emission credits), it is prudent to conduct an analysis that captures most incumbent uncertainties. These uncertainties include future resource decisions and the regional character of energy resources, whichmay not be captured by national estimates and simple extrapolation techniques. While some estimation methods, such as use of default emission factors, produce reasonable national average numbers, the estimates may not be applicable to specific regions. The environmental and economic value of programs may be misstated.