Reliability evaluation of generation/transmission power systems including fuzzy data

摘要

This paper presents an approach to reliability evaluation of generation/transmission power systems using the Monte Carlo simulation method. In this approach uncertainties are represented using two different frameworks. For one side, probability concepts are used to represent the failure-repair cycle of system components. Loads are represented through classified load diagrams in which each time step corresponds to a fuzzy number. This simulation method allows the user to obtain estimates of the expected exposure and robustness indices and of the Power Not Supplied membership function.