Consideration of equipment failure parameter uncertainties in bus composite reliability indices

摘要

This paper presents an approach for evaluating the effects of uncertainties associated with the equipment failure parameters on composite reliability indices at bus level. This approach is based on the methodology for calculating the exact sensitivity of composite reliability indices with respect to variations in equipment failure and repair rates. The sensitivities of indices at bus level allow the identification of the set of buses which are most affected by each equipment parameter, i.e., it is possible to determine the area of influence related to equipment reliability improvements and thus providing possible candidates to share the associated costs. With these sensitivities, it is also possible to evaluate the impact of failure parameter uncertainty on indices at bus level. The approach is illustrated in a case study with the IEEE-Reliability Test System.