Fall of the dial tone empire: what will happen to thy loyal servant, battery 'n' dirt?

摘要

The 20th century saw the rise of the dial tone empire. Alert and diligent, loyal servant Battery "n" Dirt protected emperor dial tone from loss of power. As the 21st Century dawns, soothsayers, prophets, and wizards predict that perhaps half of emperor dial tone's narrowband access lines will perish by 2010. Strong contenders for the throne, including Attila the Wireless and IP telephony barbarians, have emerged from the eastern badlands. Royal treasury depleted, the Empire may be in dire straits. What will happen to thy loyal servant, Battery "n" Dirt? Will he be allowed to continue to serve, or will he be deemed too large a burden on the royal treasury? Will he be able to find ways to reduce capital or operational expenditures (CAPEX or OPEX) and thus gain favor with the Emperor? Viable alternatives to wireline plain old telephone service (POTS) are available. DSL and cable modems are rapidly replacing second lines used for internet access. Dial-up internet access will be extinct by 2010. Younger "Generation Y" customers are adopting wireless in lieu of wireline. IP telephony is on the doorstep of minimum quality of service (QoS) performance and thus mainstream acceptance. Demand is strong for broadband services, but competition is fierce and margins razor thin. Incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs) must transform themselves from "telephone" to "information transportation" companies. ILECs are faced with the daunting task of modernizing a network that is losing customers. What will the "Central Office of the Future" look like? Will more or less floor space, power, and HVAC be required? The purpose of this paper is to attempt to answer this question and then investigate strategies to reduce CO power CAPEX and OPEX requirements.