The application of estimation theory to managing risk in product developments

摘要

Risk in product development is defined as the probability that the product will not satisfy all of its requirements. Effective product development, to minimize risk, is posed as an optimal estimation problem. A solution is found by applying estimation theory and drawing the analogy between design uncertainty and measurement noise. Application of the solution is demonstrated by analyzing an aerodynamic design task and optimizing a plan for preliminary design of a long range transport aircraft.