Investigation of methodologies for generating monthly energy sales forecasts

摘要

An accurate monthly energy sales forecast leads to a more precise allocation of required resources to generate electricity, thus optimally directing cash flow for the individual electric utility company's budgeting process. The techniques used to develop the monthly forecasts are discussed. Initially, twelve different methodologies were identified and used to develop monthly energy sales by sector over the historical period of 1986 to 1988 for one of the four operating companies in the Middle South Electric System. These results were then compared to the actual sector monthly energy sales for those respective years. The four best methodologies were chosen for individual sectors and results validated by using these methods in a similar fashion in the other three operating systems.