The Research of Estate Logistics Investment Risk Based on Monte Carlo Method

摘要

This essay analyzes the development trend of the estate logistics at present and the factors of estate logistics investment risk.The conception of the estate logistics investment risk have been defined .Combined with Monte Carlo Method to analyze net present value model and risk degree model and investment risk probability model which used in analysis of estate logistics investment risk with the help of software EXCEL. Using the Monte Carlo Method to simulate the example which have been given in this essay,according to simulation results to draw diagrams for risk analysis and risk assessment,then to describe the reliability of the simulation by accumulate probability chart.