Risk Assessment Models for Post-Mining Land Use

摘要

Open cut coal-mining has been conducted in the Bowen Basin region of central Queensland for almost five decades, and has disturbed an estimated area of 140 000 ha of agricultural land until 2011. Approximately one-third of the area disturbed by mining has been rehabilitated to pastures or bushland. However, none of the rehabilitated land has yet been assigned a specific end-use. This research project develops an approach for assessing end-use risks for the region's mined land, and develops risk assessment models for selected end-uses. First, a web-based survey of stakeholders was used to identify risks to be assessed. The risks identified were surface erosion, subsurface erosion, bushfires, weeds and feral animals. The survey also identified possible end-uses of bushland and grazing. Second, conceptual risk models were developed based on the risk assessment concepts of likelihood and consequence specified in the Australian and New Zealand risk assessment standards. Likelihood was modelled using site characteristics and management factors that influence the occurrence probability of risks (eg surface erosion), while consequence was modelled using a set of site condition indicators and condition thresholds (changes in root-zone water-holding capacity, soil erodibility, vegetation ground cover and soil organic matter and transition probability to a non-preferred ecosystem type). The factors influencing likelihood and consequence for each risk have been integrated using Bayesian networks. The next step in model development is to parameterise the Bayesian networks using existing equations, empirical datasets, or expert opinion where data are not available. The parameterised models will be used to assess grazing and bushland end-uses against erosion, bushfire, weed and feral animal risks for rehabilitated mined land sites, with the purpose of identifying the relative risks associated with each end-use, and the landform design specifications and land management practices under which end-use risks are minimised.