THE HESSI PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT: A RISK ANALYSIS OF AN EXPLORER PROGRAM SPACECRAFT

摘要

This paper describes the procedure used to conduct a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for a small science spacecraft, the insights gained from it, the use the project made of it. The study was performed in approximately one month at the request of the Red Team review board before launch in order to gain the top-down risk insights that PRA can provide. The results were useful and used by the HESSI project engineers even though failure rates may have been somewhat overestimated.