MODELLING RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE SCHEDULING OF RAPID TUNNEL EXCAVATION PROJECTS USING THE CRYSTAL BALL SOFTWARE

机译：使用水晶球软件对快速隧道开挖项目进行排序的风险和不确定性建模

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The Rapid Tunnel Excavation ( RTE ) Approach is a novel method in bi-directional tunnel excavation. Such projects are plagued by an apparent failure to meet the predicted timetable more often than not. This paper demonstrates the feasibility and efficiency of tackling this problem by using the Crystal Ball software in modelling risk and uncertainty in the scheduling of RTE projects.

机译：快速隧道开挖（RTE）方法是双向隧道开挖中的一种新方法。显然，这些项目经常无法满足预期的时间表。本文演示了使用Crystal Ball软件对RTE项目进度中的风险和不确定性进行建模的可行性和效率。

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来源
《IPMA(International Project Management Association) World Congress on Project Management; 20061015-17; Shanghai(CN)》|2006年|P.210-215|共6页
会议地点 Shanghai(CN)
作者
Dimitrios M. Emiris; Panagiotis V. Siskos; John-Paris Pantouvakis;
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作者单位

Department of Industrial Management and Technology, University of Piraeus 80 Karaoli Dimitriou Str. , 185 34 Piraeus, Greece;

Department of Civil Engineering, National Technical University of Athens;

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会议组织
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类科学技术管理;
关键词
rapid tunnel excavation; optimization; scheduling; uncertainty; risk management; monte carlo simulation; crystal ball;

机译：快速隧道开挖;优化;调度;不确定性;风险管理;蒙特卡洛模拟;水晶球;
入库时间 2022-08-26 14:21:27

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机译：Crystal Ball〜R软件在预测浓度和风险水平的不确定度和敏感性分析中的应用
2. Projecting Risks in a Software Project through Kepner-Tregoe Program and Schedule Re-Planning for Avoiding the Risks [J] . Seiichi KOMIYA, Atsuo HAZEYAMA IEICE Transactions on Information and Systems . 2000,第4期

机译：通过Kepner-Tregoe程序预测软件项目中的风险并安排重新计划以避免风险
3. Uncertainty evaluation with fuzzy schedule risk analysis model in activity networks of construction projects [J] . ?–kmen ?–, ?–zta#351, A Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering . 2014,第2期

机译：工程项目活动网络中模糊进度风险分析模型的不确定性评估
4. Probabilistic risk assessment of excavation performance in tunnel projects using Bayesian networks: a case study [C] . O. Špačková, D. Straub Geotechnical safety and risk . 2011

机译：贝叶斯网络的隧道工程开挖性能概率风险评估：案例研究
5. Modeling project schedule uncertainty due to a programmatic risk factor using bayesian networks. [D] . Nduka, Ifechukwu C. 2015

机译：使用贝叶斯网络对由于项目风险因素导致的项目进度不确定性进行建模。
6. Qualitative and quantitative project risk assessment using a hybrid PMBOK model developed under uncertainty conditions [O] . Behrad Barghi, Shahram Shadrokh sikari 2020

机译：使用在不确定条件下开发的混合PMBOK模型进行定性和定量项目风险评估
7. Uncertainty evaluation from Monte-Carlo simulations by using Crystal-Ball software [O] . A. Gustavo Gonzalez, M. Angeles Herrador, Agustín G. Asuero 2005

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MODELLING RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE SCHEDULING OF RAPID TUNNEL EXCAVATION PROJECTS USING THE CRYSTAL BALL SOFTWARE

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