RISK ANALYSIS FOR CONSTRUCTION TOMORROW

摘要

This paper outlines on-going research work to develop the first of a new generation of risk assessment tools that will aid decision making under conditions of uncertainty and of limited data. This exciting challenge simultaneously addresses two fundamental themes in risk management namely the desire for better decision making under increasingly chaotic conditions and the realisation that it is only in text books that complete data sets exist. The work utilises the modern mathematics concepts of Fuzzy Reasoning A-nalysis and the Analytical Hierarchy Approach for the development of a new tool/technique for risk assessment at appraisal.