BEHAVIOURAL SIMULATION USING AUGMENTED FUZZY COGNITIVE MAPS FOR DECISION AND POLICY MAKING IN COMPETITIVE ELECTRICITY MARKETS

摘要

Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) offer versatile ways of modelling complex behavioural systems where imprecision and uncertainty exist. The approach however has been constrained by its reliance on simple mathematical structures that do not allow adequate representation of the complex characteristics of real time systems. In this paper, we present an alternative approach to the creation of FCM's using the Matlab Simulink platform. This approach radically simplifies the process of knowledge elicitation, and subsequent encoding. Further, the framework includes extensive functionality such as temporal delay, and temporal decision variance, that allow the full richness of the concept interrelationships to be described: This enhances the representation of the state space, and consequently will permit the application of FCMs to more complex domains than has previously been possible. An illustration of the potential of the approach is presented by as a simplified model of the Renewables Obligation Scheme within the New Energy Trading Arrangements (NETA).