Forecasting the Number of Subscribers of 3G Mobile Services in China Based on Bass Diffusion Model

摘要

It is expected that 3G mobile services will be launched into the market in China. But it is hard to predict the demand of this new service. In this paper, Bass diffusion model and Norton-Bass model are adopted to make the prediction of number of 3G subscribers. Based on the regression analysis with actual data, the predicted results are acceptable. And finally, the paper points out that the price of 3G handsets and services, and backward compatibility are two factors influencing the diffusion of 3G greatly.