Seasonal trends of rainfall and flow in South-West England

摘要

Recent floods in England have triggered debate on the impact of climate change on floods. In this study, trend analyses were carried out on seasonal rainfall depth, mean flow and peak flow, and return period of peak flows over three distinctive catchments in South West England. It found that there are general trends of increased volume of rainfall and runoff in winter and decreased volume of those in summer, which is in agreement with the current climatic model's simulation. However, the peak flows (both annual and seasonal) across three catchments appear to move in opposite direction, indicating the change of rainfall patterns and anthropogenic activities in the region. Further work is needed to investigate the reasons for this disparity between mean flow and peak flow.