URBAN LAND DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBILISTIC INFORMATION

摘要

In this paper, a decision problem whether the landowner should begin to construct the building at present for sale in the future is considered. The uncertainty of building price in the future is characterized by possibility distribution to reflect the potential how much the building price will be. Two focus points, called active focus point and passive focus point are introduced as sorts of equilibriums to balance utility and possibility to show which values should be considered for making decision under possibilistic information. Based on such two focus points, a general model is developed to analyze the investment behavior of landowner. The optimal building size based on active focus point is larger than the one based on passive focus point. Increasing the uncertainty of price can make active investor increase investment scale and careful investor decrease investment scale. It can be seen that the proposed method seems more reasonable for such one-shot decision problem than maximizing expected utility in probability framework.