Predicting Technology Operationa Availability Using Technical Maturity Assessment

摘要

A technical maturity assessment method was performed by systems engineers in collaboration with an advistory panel composed of team members from different Department of Energy sites and from different engineering and science discipplines. Various stabilization technologies were assessed annually as to their relative maturity and availability for use in stabilizing nuclear materials. After three years of assessments, several of the technologies are now components of operational systems. A regression analysis of the hisotircal assessments was performed, and it was concluded that the numerical technical maturity score produced by a team of experts can provide a powerful proedictor of the time remaining until the perational appl;ication of techologies.