Risk analysis in flood prone areas - a case study

摘要

An analysis of the casualty risk in a flood-prone area along a river is performed. A dike is designed according to the current (deterministic) design standard in the Netherlands. For this dike, the distribution of the maximum flooding discharge is derived, which is applied to derive the relative number of casualties for every location in the area, given a certain type of flood. Integration over the possible scenarios and the area finally leads to estimates of the individual death probability and the distribution of the yearly number of casualties. The calculated risk is compared to Dutch standards for acceptable flooding risk.