On Developing a Risk Analysis Framework for Post-Industrial Age Technologies

摘要

Risk assessment, to date, has been primarily a retrospective process. It was developed by the U.S. Space Program in the 1950's and 60's with the advent of Failure Modes and Effects Analysis in an attempt to both understand and correct missile and rocket launch failures. It came of age with the publication of the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) in 1975, but only after approximately 75 nuclear power plants already had been designed, built and operated in the U.S. From the remediation of Superfund sites and assessing space missions to improving safety at chemical and nuclear facilities, Risk Assessment has become an important tool for managing the health and safety of the public and the environment. We believe that the field of risk assessment now needs to be prospective, i.e. to consider the consequences of a new generation of technologies before they are fully developed and deployed. In a previous paper [1], we proposed a new, more contemporary view of risk as it relates to modern technology. This view includes an expanded basis for risk analysis that is closer to the science on which the newest technologies are predicated, primarily the two main characteristics of general nonlinear systems-holism and self-organization.