Poisson-Logistic Compound Bivariate Extreme Distribution and Its Application for Designing of Platform Deck Clearance

摘要

This paper proposes a new bivariate extreme probability model---Poisson-Logistic compound extreme distribution. Because the routes and frequencies of Typhoons vary each year, the frequencies of Typhoons occurring in certain sea areas also differ from year to year. This may cause a discrete distribution. Typhoon induced sea environments may be a kind of multivariate joint extreme distribution. By compounding the discrete distribution with a bivariate distribution of two extreme maritime factors, a new distribution---Poisson-Logistic compound bivariate extreme distribution is proposed in this paper. As one of the application example, a platform deck clearance can be estimated by compounding Typhoon induced maximum wave crest height and surge with 100 yrs joint occurring return period instead of traditional method, which proposed to use separate 100 yrs return period wave create height and surge.