Scenario analysis of copper in a green world

摘要

A regional copper scenario model was developed based upon the generic Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework. This 'Green World' represents an ideological move towards sustainability and is characterized by reduction in material intensity of use, and rapid introduction and diffusion of clean and resource-efficient technologies across world regions. The copper intensity of use converges to 0.05 g/$ as the GDP per capita level approaches $100000/capita. The convergence of copper intensities of developed and developing countries is fast and the gap diminishes beyond the $25000/capita level. Globally, copper use rises to 60 Tg/yr by the year 2050 and thereafter declines to 30 Tg/yr by 2100. Developing countries influence the global copper cycle significantly beyond 2020. Per capita copper use levels converge in the range of 4-5 kg/capita across regions, symbolizing the sustainability theme of the Green World scenario.