EFFECT OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON SLIDING DISTANCEOF A CAISSON BREAKWATER: OPTIMIZATION WITH PROBABILISTIC DESIGN METHOD

摘要

The sea level rise due to the global warming brings larger sliding distances for caisson breakwaters. The effect of the sea level rise on expected sliding distance is analyzed and optimum sectional areas of breakwater are calculated with a probabilistic method of design. The optimum sectional areas correspond to those designed for the sea level at 23 to 29 years later. The probability of failure may increase up to 50 % if no measure is taken. The increase of the cost to adopt the sea level rise is 0.5 to 2.3 % on the sectional area base.