Satellite Reliability Assessment Based on Bayesian Theory

摘要

Reliability requirements on spacecraft such as satellite contains given quantized index .It is very difficult to assess satellite reliability due to its complex system, long mission period, high reliability requirements and very few samples. Classical assessment approach is to evaluate satellite reliability by test data before launching, but such data is too limited to assess satellite reliability for purpose of long period flight mission with several years, it can not evaluate inherent reliability of satellite rightly. However, the approach of satellite reliability assessment based on Bayesian theory takes the message of failure rate of parts as pro-testing message of electronic units, and takes into account on-the-spot testing message of products on the premise of conjugate pro-testing distribution synthetically. This paper not only introduces the idea, approach for satellite assessment based on Bayesian theory, but also discusses its traits. It is a applicable method in actual engineering.