A SECURITY ANALYSIS OF SPACE-BASED WEAPONS AND CREDIBLE ALTERNATIVES

摘要

Some states are becoming critically dependent on satellites and yet satellites have some inherent vulnerabilities to attack - this is a genuine security problem. Some in the US have proposed solving this by using space-based weapons. Moreover there are some development programmes in the US for some of these concepts with the first set to be deployed within a 5-year timescale. This paper goes through a first order analysis of the net security impact of the 4 different space-based weapons systems that have been seriously proposed. This is based upon a clear set of criteria laid out. It shows that each weapon is likely to have a net negative impact upon the national security of the US or any other state choosing to develop and deploy them. This is largely due to the fundamental technological asymmetry of space which means that relative to the task of making an effective space-based weapon, its counter measure is trifling. With its positive security effects easily negated, its negative security effects, mainly associated with driving increased capability of other states to have ground based anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities, dominate: by accelerating other states plans to deploy these, space-based weapons could in fact jeopardise all other space assets, a dynamic in which the US has the most to loose. It is concluded that proponents of space-based weapons systems should shoulder the burden of showing analytically how they enhance US security before any further development funds are provided.