Evolution of the Relationship between Population Scale and Economy Development in China——Co-Integration Analysis and Vector Error Correct Model Based on Vector Auto-Regression

摘要

This paper constructs a dynamic model of co-integration analysis and vector error correct model based on vector auto-regression and performs a co-integration test and Granger causality test on the relationship between population scale and economy development in separate periods.The result reveals that economy development and population scale exhibited a long-term equilibrium relationship during 1952-1978 and the elasticity of the adjusted per capital GDP to the total population was negative.This supports Malthus's theory of population.However,in the period of 1979-1991,there did not exist a significant long-term equilibrium relationship between the total population and the economy.From 1992 to 2010,again,the long equilibrium between population scale and economy development occurred and at this time the elasticity of the per capital GDP to the total population turned positive.China's development gets rid of Malthus's trap in which process technology conditions and policy conditions have a deep influence on the relationship between population scale and economy development.In addition,the research finds that economy development has a feedback on the total population.In the period of 1952-1978 and 1992-2010,the feedback was negative,the conclusion of which was drawn in the Granger causality test based on the vector error correct model.Economy development gives a boost to demographic transition,which is consistent with children's quality and quantity theory.