Is Income Always Equal to Output?—Reexamining the Statistical Discrepancy in National Income Account

摘要

The theorem that income is always equal to output is generally accepted in macroeconomics.Although it has never been proved, the difference between income and output in national income accounts is attributed to 'statistical discrepancy'.This paper explores the mistake in this theorem, where the fluxes of income and output are taken as the sum of the stocks of exchange between sellers and buyers.In fact, income and output are generally not equal at the statistical level because credit prevails in economic activities. A model is derived showing the relative difference of output over income is in proportion to inflation. Statistical analysis based on US data supports this model.This means the 'statistical discrepancy' in national income account is not simply a statistical error, but contains the information of the aggregate credit level of the economy.