Place-Based Space-Time Accessibility Measures Considering Travel Time Reliability

摘要

Travel times in congested urban areas are highly stochastic. Many empirical studies have found significant impacts of travel time uncertainties on individual activity-travel scheduling. This study proposes a place-based space-time accessibility evaluation framework for urban areas with uncertain travel times. A reliable reverse space-time prism (RRSTP) is introduced to represent the space-time service area of a facility given a preferred on-time arrival probability. Using the RRSTP, the proposed accessibility evaluation framework can explicitly consider individuals' on-time arrival probability constraint for activity participations under travel time uncertainties. The applicability of the proposed accessibility evaluation framework is demonstrated in a comprehensive case study in Wuhan, China. The results of the case study show that the proposed framework can evaluate accessibility well for the large urban area with travel time uncertainties.