Scarcity of Minerals and Metals: A Generic Exploratory System Dynamics Model

摘要

Possible short, medium and/or long term scarcity of minerals/metals may actually pose a threat to modern societies. Its potentially disruptive societal consequences qualify this issue for exploration from a world/regional security point of view. Hence, exploratory System Dy-namics modelling and simulation is used in this paper to explore the dynamic complexity of potential mineral/metal scarcity under deep uncertainty and to create useful scenarios for risk management.