FORECASTING LOCATIONAL MARGINAL PRICES IN A U.S. ISO

摘要

In the past decade, deregulation hasreshaped the power industry in many countriesworldwide. Open access to the electricity market hasboosted competition among power producers and powermarketers to reduce energy prices and maintain systemreliability. In this environment, the profit margin ofeach market participant is directly related to the price ofelectricity. As a result, accurate price forecasting isessential for developing the best strategy for ageneration portfolio. This paper describes the basicconcepts of the Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP)system. It also outlines the fundamental requirementsfor a computer simulation tool to accurately forecastprices in an LMP-based market. The LMP system iscurrently in use in many markets including thePennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland (PJM) andNew York power markets in the U.S. In this paper, PJMis used as an example to demonstrate the use of marketsimulation tools to forecast LMPs. A comparison of theresults obtained from a market simulation tool and thosefrom the PJM real-time locational pricing algorithm(LPA) is presented.