Testing for Serial Independence of the Residuals in the Framework of Fuzzy Rule-Based Time Series Modeling

摘要

In this paper, we propose a new diagnostic checking tool for fuzzy rule-based modelling of time series. Through the study of the residuals in the Lagrange Multiplier testing framework we devise a hypothesis test which allows us to determine if there is some left autocorrelation in the error series. This is an important step towards a statistically sound modelling strategy for fuzzy rule-based models.