Conceptual design and implementation of a model for the integrated simulation of large-scale land-use systems

摘要

In the scientific literature, the relation between human land-use activities and the environment is often described as a coupled human-environment system with socio-economic as well as ecological and biophysical components as sub-systems (Mather, 2006). These "land-use systems" form the terrestrial part of the Earth System and are therefore critical components of global biogeochemical cycles and energy fluxes (GLP, 2005). One approach to simulate the spatial and temporal dynamics of land-use systems on the regional to global scale level is the LandSHIFT modelling framework, which is currently under development at CESR. First applications in the context of mid- to long-term scenario analysis focus on Africa (Schaldach et al, 2006), India (Schaldach et al., in review) and the Middle East (Koch et al., 2008). LandSHIFT has a modular structure, which supports the integration of various sub-models representing the key components of land systems. In this paper, we describe and discuss the design of the prototype of LandSHIFT, both on the conceptual and the implementation level. Additionally an exemplary model application is presented.