A Bayesian Approach for Estimating Complex SystemReliability

摘要

Although a number of recent studies on using BN for system reliability estimationrnhave been proposed, these studies are based on the assumption that a pre-built BN wasrndesigned to represent the system. In these studies, the task of building the BN is typically left torna group of specialists who are BN and domain experts. However the process of building arnsystem-specific BN is generally very time consuming and may lead to incorrect deductions. Asrnthere are no existing studies to eliminate the need for a human expert in the process of systemrnreliability estimation, this paper introduces a holistic method that uses historical data about thernsystem to be modeled as a BN and provides efficient techniques for automated construction ofrnthe BN model and estimation of the system reliability. Moreover, very limited humanrnintervention is sufficient for the process of BN construction and reliability estimation.