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Study on the Influence of Component Uncertainty onReliability Estimation of Multi-State Systems withContinuous States

机译:组件不确定性对连续状态多状态系统可靠性估计的影响研究

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Existing reliability evaluation methods rely on the availability of accuraterncomponent states data. They will become ineffective when the states themselves arernuncertain or unknown, which usually happens during the early stages of the development ofrnnew systems. In such cases it is important to understand how uncertainties will affect thernsystem reliability measures. Another drawback of current methods studying reliability ofrnMulti-State System (MSS) is that they only considered the systems whose componentsrnhave several discrete states. For those whose components have continuous states, thesernmethods are not effective either. This paper considered the continuous distribution ofrncomponents states during the approximation of Multi-State System (MSS) reliability andrnproposed a method to assess the reliability of this kind of system using Monte-Carlornsimulation. This method will also be useful when we have no enough data to know thernexact discrete states and related probability, and can only estimate components statesrndistribution types and related parameters. Two examples were employed to illustrate thernmethod. Comparison of the two examples shows that component state uncertainty hasrnsignificant influence on the assessment of system reliability. Our effort will make thernreliability approximation more realistic compared with existing methods.
机译:现有的可靠性评估方法依赖于准确的组件状态数据的可用性。当国家本身不确定或未知时,它们将失效,这通常发生在新系统开发的早期阶段。在这种情况下,重要的是要了解不确定性将如何影响系统的可靠性措施。当前研究多状态系统(MSS)可靠性的方法的另一个缺点是,它们仅考虑其组件具有多个离散状态的系统。对于那些其成分具有连续状态的方法,sern方法也无效。本文考虑了多状态系统(MSS)可靠性逼近过程中组分状态的连续分布,并提出了一种使用蒙特卡洛仿真方法评估此类系统可靠性的方法。当我们没有足够的数据来了解精确的离散状态和相关概率,并且只能估计组件状态,分布类型和相关参数时,该方法也将非常有用。使用两个例子来说明该方法。通过两个实例的比较表明,组件状态不确定性对系统可靠性的评估影响不大。与现有方法相比,我们的努力将使可靠性近似更为现实。

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