Vulnerability Analysis and GIS Based Seismic Risk Assessment Georgia Case

摘要

The paper presents a framework for the vulnerability analysis to assess seismic risk for the Republic of Georgia. Firstly, detailed inventory map of elements at risk was created. Here elements at risk are comprised of buildings and population. The grid of 0.025° size was created to summarize building and population data into the grid cells for further analysis. The custom programming script was created that summarizes the following information for each grid cell: the total number of buildings, total area of buildings, total population, total number of buildings per each taxonomy class and total area of buildings for each taxonomy class. Secondly, seismic hazard maps were calculated based on modern approach of selecting and ranking global and regional ground motion prediction equation for region. Thirdly, on the bases of empirical data that was collected for some earthquake intensity based vulnerability study were completed for Georgian buildings. Finally, probabilistic seismic risk assessment in terms of structural damage and casualties were calculated for the territory of Georgia for 2.8 km grid cells using obtained results. This methodology gave prediction of damage and casualty for a given probability of recurrence, based on a probabilistic seismic hazard model, population distribution, inventory, and vulnerability of buildings.