Design and Implementation of a New Knowledge-Based System for Demand and Traffic Forecast in Rural Telephone Networks

摘要

Demand and traffic forecast in rural telephone networks is a difficult and complex task, which relies heavily on the knowledge of a teletraffic expert. The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) has developed software forecasting tools as an aid to telephone network planners. Nevertheless, its procedure still requires the involvement of teletraffic experts to tune many of the parameters in the forecast models. The ITU original procedures have been modified and a new algorithm has been proposed by the authors in a recent work (1) and (2), which attempted to simplify and systematize the demand and traffic forecast procedures. In addition, a knowledge-based system has been proposed for implementing the new algorithm. In the present paper, the details of the developed knowledge-based system are reviewed, and numerical results are reported for the specific example of the District of Fayoum in Egypt.